Whenever we encounter the word probability, I think we should analyze the situation and take it with a grain of salt, for, probability is not always dictated by independent sequence of events, but could be impacted by the history of events as well. The face value of probability may not make sense in a lot of cases though we are misled by our intuition to believe it the other way.
For example, if records indicate that an area is in earthquake zone with a probability of a major earthquake to happen once every 20 years… Forget about how much history went into predict such a probability for a moment. If the last major earthquake happened 19 years before, is it still good to look at it as a 1 in 20 year probability? In reality, a lot of probabilistic situations converge towards certainty as time goes on. In some cases like life span, we are aware of it. But, in a lot of other cases, we just look at numbers and assume it the other way. The next time, when you encounter situations where the probability of that situation happening is very less, you can be convinced that you are probably witnessing the most probable case…:)